Democratic candidate Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over Republican rival Donald Trump in the US presidential race, according to the latest opinion poll from the statistical site FiveThirtyEight, with only days remaining before Election Day.
FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker indicates Harris’s slim lead has decreased slightly over the past two months, while Trump has gained a modest 0.9 percentage points since October 1.
However, when factoring in Electoral College projections, FiveThirtyEight’s model suggests that Trump has a 54 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 46 percent.
According to the poll analysis site, the race may ultimately hinge on seven critical swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — which collectively hold 90 electoral votes.
FiveThirtyEight attributes its forecast to a blend of polling data and campaign “fundamentals” such as economic conditions, state partisanship, and incumbency, according to the site.
What is FiveThirtyEight?
Founded in 2007 by Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight takes its name from the total number of electors in the US Electoral College. Initially licensed to The New York Times, the site was acquired by ESPN in 2013, where Silver served as editor-in-chief and contributed to Disney’s sports media group. In 2018, FiveThirtyEight operations were moved to ABC News, also under Disney’s ownership.
In 2023, Nate Silver departed from ABC after a series of Disney layoffs and launched a new venture, Silver Bulletin, retaining the rights to his forecasting model.
How accurate are its predictions?
In 2008, FiveThirtyEight forecasted a significant win for Barack Obama, projecting the Democratic candidate would earn 349 electoral votes, while his Republican opponent, John McCain, would secure 189. Obama ultimately won with 365 electoral votes and 52.9% of the popular vote.
In 2012, the site accurately predicted Obama’s re-election, estimating his chance of victory at over 90%.
However, in 2016, FiveThirtyEight faced criticism when its model gave Donald Trump a mere 29% chance of winning. Trump went on to win, becoming the 45th president.
By 2020, the site took a more cautious approach, predicting a Joe Biden victory while noting the race was on a “fine line between a landslide and nail-biter.” Biden eventually won 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232.
Will FiveThirtyEight be accurate this time?
