Oil prices are expected to remain above $100 per barrel in the near future, as the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict shows no clear signs of easing, according to analysts at OCBC.

Now entering its third week, the conflict continues to disrupt crucial oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — a vital route that handles nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply. With tanker movement significantly reduced due to security concerns, global oil markets are facing increasing pressure.

OCBC analysts predict that Brent crude prices will hover around $100 per barrel until mid-2026, a notable increase from earlier estimates of $70. Prices may gradually decline to around $70 by early 2027 if the situation stabilizes.

The prolonged disruption is forcing Gulf oil producers to cut output, raising concerns that short-term supply issues could turn into long-term shortages. Although some measures — such as alternative pipelines, strategic reserves, and continued Iranian exports — could offset part of the supply loss, a significant gap may still remain.

Experts warn that the market is approaching a “moderately severe” supply shock, with the potential for prices to rise even further if tensions continue.